Mandalay Earthquake
After experiencing a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in 1999, I have always followed earthquake news closely. Rest in peace to those who lost their lives in the Myanmar earthquake. Unfortunately, predicting the death toll is not easy and often takes a long time.
When I walked through the earthquake-affected areas back then, I realized that even when buildings appeared relatively intact, the death toll could still be high due to people being trapped inside. My prediction is that if Myanmar is a modern city with over a million people, outwardly intact buildings might hide the destruction inside. Neighbors trapped within elevators or staircases likely had no chance of escape.
Given Myanmar's status as a modern city, the death toll could exceed 50,000. I suspect the earthquake was 7.9 in magnitude because roads were also severely damaged. If the impact was felt even in a neighboring country, the toll could even reach 70,000 or more. Without functioning telecommunication systems, many cannot call for help, leaving numerous deaths and disappearances unreported.
Additionally, large aftershocks often cause further destruction, collapsing structures that seemed stable after the main quake. Just because a building looks solid externally does not mean its interior is safe. People might not have escaped as presumed. Realistically, the death toll could reach as high as 150,000 in an average modern city.
On the other hand, primitive, single-story homes often sustain less damage in earthquakes. In recent years, the occurrence of dual earthquakes has increased. My condolences to all those affected.
