Despite evacuation orders, many residents of Los Angeles chose to stay in their homes, hoping to try their luck. They underestimated the fire's danger, thinking it wasn’t explosive but rather a slow-moving threat. However, as the fire approached, they realized it was relentless, and recognize the immediate danger. Unlike an earthquake, where survivors trapped under buildings often have time to call for help, the fire gave no chance for such efforts. The air blocks inhalation of oxygen. Can not see around.
https://youtu.be/YOCbrMHLmmk?si=XYfcq2VxFANIL0jT
A video taken in broad daylight shows a real, unaltered scene of the palisade fire. Despite having the chance to escape, many people chose to stay in their homes, which ultimately burned down with them inside. The smoke or perhaps their belief in luck may have influenced their decision to remain. The official death toll method is different and shaped by law, but it is clear that many people succumbed to the smoke and failed to reach their cars or flee in time. Californians are not generally accustomed to surviving in wildlife conditions, where a quick and athletic run escape might be necessary. As a result, many stayed in their homes during the fire.
The law requires a name-by-name count for death tolls, but I see the truth as a historian might and estimate the number of deaths. It was just after New Year’s, following the holidays, and most people were likely at home. Many homes in Los Angeles are family-type residences, so I estimate at least 20,000 deaths as a definite number. Los Angeles is not an area with many empty apartments or flats, so it is reasonable to assume at least 3, and possibly 7 or more, people per home. The number of homes is clearly available from maps and aerial data.
The question of whether the fire was natural arises. My answer is no—it was probably an act of sabotage, potentially using chemical methods to create a large fire. Such a fire is unlikely to start naturally in winter. Why did homes burn but not trees? It is possible that electrical lines burst, and power or gas lines were not shut off. Additionally, the fact that houses were too close together caused sudden, large, and fast-moving fires. The architectural layout made the spread of the fire easy. The proximity of homes caused the fire to grow rapidly.
Based on all these factors, I estimate that at least 20,000 people died, but the actual number is likely higher as of January 14, 2025.
Given that most homes in the area house at least three people, and nearly half of them accommodate 5 or more, it is estimated that at least 75,000 people may have lost their lives as of 14.01.2025. Without significant snow or rain, the death toll would rise further. If the fire were to continue for three months and burn 20% of Los Angeles County, the fatalities could exceed 100,000 lives.
I visited Pasadena for over a week in 1998 and found it to be peaceful and seemingly crime-free. I felt safe walking around and exploring the neighborhood during my stay.
Do I believe the theory that it was not intended to cause the deaths of thousands, but rather to clear the land of people? Yes, I do. I believe they did not aim to kill people directly, but they certainly did not value human lives when weighed against their objective. And yes, they would have sacrificed even a million lives if necessary. I believe they deliberately created many fires to ignite wide areas, aiming to burn the land entirely if they could. I also believe the dry, unusually high-temperature climate of 2025 accelerated the spread of the fire.
As of January 16, 2025, predicting what could happen in February 2025 is challenging—it might be worse, or it might not. However, I see no signs of fire in the areas that burned a week ago in the Palisades. It seems that the wind is not spreading the fire as much, and once the flammable material is consumed, the fire stops naturally.
______Hello CHATGPT, can you predict and model LA fire, regardless of human firefight help. How bad LA fire would spread. Pay attention to dry climate, winds.
ChatGPT: Here are the speculations
Speculative Timeline Without Helicopter Aid
Week 1
- Fires double in size due to unchecked wind-driven spread.
- Palisades Fire threatens Malibu and moves deeper into the Santa Monica Mountains.
- Eaton Fire encroaches on Pasadena and urban edges of Glendale.
Week 2
- Fire jumps highways and freeways: Embers cross natural barriers like the 101 and 405, creating spot fires in suburban areas.
- Fires spread across urban zones like West Hollywood and Downtown LA due to ember-driven ignition.
Week 3
- Entire neighborhoods burn: Flammable homes, densely packed streets, and ornamental vegetation fuel rapid urban destruction.
- Santa Ana winds shift, increasing fire spread to the southwest, possibly reaching coastal areas like Venice and Santa Monica.
Week 4
- Fires consume tens of thousands of structures and natural reserves. Areas like Malibu, Calabasas, Pasadena, and Santa Monica experience catastrophic damage.
______
If the fire's speed remains unchecked and without firefighter intervention, the following could occur:
Week-by-Week Progression:
Week 1(after 14 January 2025):
- Fires expand rapidly due to strong winds and dry conditions.
- Palisades Fire spreads northwest into the Santa Monica Mountains and Malibu, fueled by canyon topography and dry vegetation.
- Eaton Fire spreads eastward into Pasadena, Glendale, and Burbank, threatening urban peripheries.
Week 2:
- Fire begins spreading into dense urban areas like Beverly Hills, West Hollywood, and Santa Monica.
- Spotting embers cause new fires miles ahead of the main fire lines.
- Santa Ana winds accelerate urban spread into areas like Culver City and potentially near LAX Airport.
Week 3:
- Entire neighborhoods in urban LA face destruction due to flammable housing materials and proximity.
- Fires in the Santa Monica Mountains merge, increasing the size and intensity of the blaze.
- Air quality worsens across the region due to massive smoke and ash dispersion.
Week 4:
- Fires consume tens of thousands of acres of urban and wildland areas, including natural reserves in the Santa Monica Mountains.
- Critical infrastructure like highways, power lines, and urban centers suffer significant damage.
- Coastal areas such as Venice and Santa Monica may experience flare-ups as embers are carried further southwest.
Projected Impact (1-Month):
- Total Area Burned: Likely over 50,000 hectares (~123,500 acres).
- Structures Lost: Tens of thousands, with entire urban zones wiped out.
- Casualties: High, due to rapid fire spread and lack of suppression.
- Environmental Damage: Loss of ecosystems in the Santa Monica Mountains and air quality crises.
This scenario assumes optimal conditions for the fire's growth (strong winds, no rain, dry fuels) and no intervention, resulting in catastrophic outcomes for both wildland and urban areas.
User: Luckily there are firefighters.
....
User: I know someone in Santa Barbara, LA, would she be safe from the 7 January 2025 LA fire?
ChatGPT:
Palisades Fire, located in the Pacific Palisades area of Los Angeles, is roughly 90 to 100 miles (145 to 160 kilometers) from Santa Barbara—very far. Given this distance, the likelihood of the fire itself reaching Santa Barbara is low. However, small embers from the fire, carried by Santa Ana winds, could travel over long distances and potentially spark smaller fires in Santa Barbara or other areas in between.
While the Palisades Fire might not directly impact Santa Barbara, wind modeling even finds Santa Barbara to be safe. These embers, however, can still pose a risk. Firefighters would likely focus on protecting Santa Barbara from any sparks that may make their way that far. It's important to keep in mind that even with the distance, winds and dry conditions could still bring indirect threats to the area.
User: We all like staying in our homes. When escape from fire?
If you can see a fire from a distance for 30 minutes continuously, or from a high vantage point, and there’s no response from the fire department, it’s best to evacuate immediately. Here’s why and when to act:
When to Evacuate?
If the Fire is Visible and Moving Closer:
- If you can clearly see the fire and it’s moving in your direction, don’t wait. Begin your evacuation right away.
No Emergency Response is Available:
- If the fire department isn’t responding or unable to assist, the risk increases significantly. Take immediate action to protect yourself and your family.
Smoke or Ash is Increasing:
- If you notice the smoke getting denser or ash starting to fall, it means the fire is getting closer.
The Sky is Darkening:
- A darkening sky, especially during the day, combined with decreasing visibility, is a clear sign of danger.
Why Early Evacuation is Crucial?
- Fires Spread Quickly: Wildfires can travel at alarming speeds, especially with strong winds, and can change direction unpredictably.
- Smoke and Visibility: Smoke reduces your ability to breathe and see, making it harder to escape if you wait too long.
- No Help Available: If emergency services are absent, you're entirely on your own, so early evacuation gives you the best chance of finding safety.
Key Takeaways for Fire Evacuation
Immediate Action:
If you’ve been observing a fire for 30 minutes or notice worsening ash and smoke, evacuate to a safe area immediately. Early evacuation is critical and can save your life. It's always safer to leave too early than too late.Follow the Wind:
- Pay close attention to the wind direction.
- Move in the opposite direction of the smoke carried by the wind.
Fire Movement:
- Fires spread rapidly uphill due to rising heat and wind patterns.
- Always try to move uphill and away from both the fire and the wind’s path.
Be Informed About Local Winds:
- Understand the major wind patterns in your area as part of your fire preparedness.
- Learn how seasonal or regional climate changes, such as dry winds or strong gusts, could affect fire behavior.
- For example, If local wind conditions are pushing the fire west or southwest, escaping east could be a good idea. If Santa Ana winds are active, escaping to the east could be safer because the fire is likely being pushed westward. However, always confirm the current wind direction and fire movement.
- Embers and Wind Spread:Burning Embers (Small Fire Stones): These can travel great distances, carried by the wind, and start spot fires far from the main blaze.
Topography:
- Altadena is at the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains. Fires in mountainous terrain spread uphill quickly but can also move unpredictably with wind and slope changes.
- If the fire is coming from the mountains to the north, heading east (or downhill to flatter areas) could be a better choice.
Preparedness Tip: Know your local wind and weather patterns, practice evacuation routes, and stay informed about fire risks during high-risk seasons.
