Although all fault lines are SOONER OR LATER likely to show activity; but if in a special year, sunlight absorbed is mostly by metal-weak-areas such deserts etc, is different if sunlight is the form absorbed by mountain, that year's likely quakes of deserts are small or unimportant.
Because it is not with a composition/chemistry which is disturbed by some special wavelenght sunlight
Figure A)
Or, homogeneous place 3) may create bigger magnitudes than place 1)
Right now, I am in a city that has MANY faults but a mixture as place1).
Meaning that having many many different type of fault lines, if buildings are engineered correct, is not really that dangerous.
But if an area is all the same composition as 'thrust fault', although very infrequent, quakes of areas with homogenous faults are more deadly, building engineering is really hard to accomplish. For example, in 1911 a place with many mountain close homogenous faults, all with thrust faults, had big quakes and big landslides. Not the quake type with high occurrance probability.The population was not that big furtunately.
Within the same month of Van 23/10/2011 earthquake, Canary Island of El Hierro erupted (October 16, 2011).
Both El Hierro erupted in ~1973? and an Earthquake occurred in Van in 1791.
ıT Seems El Hiero eruption is not a good sign for Van Earthquake possibility.
My Earthquake forecast, after canary island underseavolcano eruption, for the city I live in right now: fORTUNATELY, it seems at least a few years after 2011, the city I am in right will not have major deadly Earthquakes. If an earthquake is smaller than 7.2 it is not considered deadly for me. But, bad buildings will be flattened even with small quakes.
My house already endured quakes about 7.
