it seems that the likelihood of an earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Kemerburgaz as a result of the recent earthquake in Turkey's middle south-east region is very low. The force from the African-Arabic plate even did not reach the Middle of Eurasia from the south, and historical recurrence of world important Earthquakes suggest that Kemerburgaz would not experience an earthquake above 6.5 Magnitude.
Additionally, the surface temperature scale for the Marmara Sea as of 2023, March is good news.
Istanbul Surface Temperatures are even better. Looking very good for March 2023. Surface Temperatures are not good indicators for entire geographical lands, anyway i do look at STs. Surface Temperatures look ok as of 22 March 2023 in above record of İstanbul (Fig1a) .
Most asked question regarding Turkey Middle South East Maras-Earthquake is, if on the very north of Marmara Sea, around vicinity of Kemerburgaz, a quite Earthquake line would be activated by recent Earthquake.
-First of all, even Toros Mountains stopped the movement of the African-Arap plate towards North (unfortunately resulting in an Earthquake in east of Mediterranean Sea). The force from African Arabic plate did not reach to Middle from south.
After Izmir Earthquake then Mediterranean Sea, i would look at again vicinity of Izmir's below. History recurrence do not give kemerburgaz earthquake above 6.5 Magnitude.
-Secondly, i am following Surface. Surface Temperature scale is very good for Marmara Sea fortunately.
Fig 1c. A small high Surface Temperature area under the sea near Yalova Sea, near a small area(Pendik).
The dark orange difference of the area as of 26 February 2023 fortunately disappeared, meaning Pendik is pending to better desirable Surface Temperature for the time.
The deep sea area mentioned on the above image is stamped with matching date.
Fig 1d. 8 Mart 2023 Surface Temperature of İstanbul.
It seems nothing wrong with Istanbul. Surface Temperatures is normal colored on this app as usual district values.
If any i need to say, close to Bursa lake, or Sakarya Kargalı local area is somehow with higher surface-temperatures.
The Marmara Sea, around Imralı Island, from Imralı shores towards Beylikdüzü opensea, towards Yalova opensea or Bursa opensea is somehow darker orange colored on above map with higher SurfT, however the area under higher Surface Temperature,( which is colored as dark orange) is very small compared to entire city, or entire Marmara Sea, or district, meaning good. It seems, if any after 1999 earthquake, the fault risky area is rather far away from Istanbul islands towards south of Marmara Sea, towards Imralı Island. Even Imralı area with High Surface Temperature seems very small. February 2023 Earthquake did increased Surface Temperatures of Cyprus to too high, but did not occured any harm on the biggest Cyprus island, i personally take that characteristics of February 2023 a good factor for Marmara Sea Islands compounds. Istanbul is not a Tsunami unprotected city fro sea earthquakes, i prefer small undersea earthquakes rather than land earthquakes. 8 Mart 2023.
I circle arbitrarily taking the epicenters of Earthquakes above 7.
The arrowed area level represents Surface Temperature of Africa that moves to North towards Europe and Asia.
I check Surface Temperature of North East Africa above yearly average levels.
Above image black circles the cities mostly damaged by Feb 2023 Earthquake. Red lines are the district's fault history lines. On the left and the right there are two different lakes. On the south west is Mediterranean Sea.
Fig 4a. February 2023, in the morning, Surface Temperature values are colored on the map.
Dark orange colored map areas are relatively higher in Surface Temperature according to the temperature scale on the left of the image.
It does not mean or definitely associated with Earthquakes. As of Feb 2023, i prefer Surface Temperatures going to cooler, lower levels. Let's see what Surface Temperatures will be in later hours in below figure 4b map.
Fig 4b. February 2023, Surface Temperature values, in the afternoon and late hours.
Many areas are relatively cooler in Surface Temperature map including East Europe, Romania for late hours.
As a single parameter, it does not mean much.
Anyway, Fig 4b is what i want to see for such a winter day. That Surface-temperatures are good again, very good.
Fig 6. This map of Surface Temperatures on Marmara Sea is taken when there measured 3.9 Magnitude Earthquake on March 2023. The same day there happened illumination in the sky.
The earthquake located Bursa undersea, north of Erdek. The earthquake area is rather higher in Surface Temperatures.
Note:
I also checked 1000 year Earthquakes history statistics, Tsunami, big nature events temporal sequences. Checked the repeated patterns of 5 different cities. For example in the past there are a pattern of Erzurum with Istanbul dates of Earthquakes. They both are on the North. But no pattern relationship with Maras and Istanbul Earthquake pattern overlapping.
Black Sea, Sea of Marmara, and Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul are not directly linked to the Mediterranean Sea, so the chances of the Northward movement of the African continent and seabed changes in the Mediterranean affecting these seas are low.
Istanbul is very North West. Istanbul is on the west of Cyprus.
I believe Izmir and Maras could be investigated as a pattern if Africa continent hitting entire Eurasia to North on the East.
Istanbul is very North and the Maras Earthquake aftershocks distribution are not going to North West, or North East but to South or bounces back from Middle to South of Turkey. Middle Turkey.
I value aftershocks distributions in Europe and Asia also. I am relating Romania small Earthquake to Maras Earthquake. I am not expecting big Romania or Afganistan Earthquake, though i associated their minor tremors to Maras Earthquake.
As of today, 27/02/2023, I looked again at the earthquake history, and also at the northward pushing motion of the African continent in the counterclockwise direction. In addition, I checked whether the coincidences of Total Solar Eclipses patterned with the Hatay and Niğde earthquakes. I concluded that the probability of a large Istanbul earthquake that would affect a wide area, with a magnitude exceeding 7.0, during the months of March, April, May and till Middle June in 2023 is quite low or unlikely. I hope I'm right.
A video showing mountains creating events here, a YouTube user video.
MILLIONS OF YEARS AGO:
About 200 million years ago, the Earth was dominated by a single supercontinent called Pangaea. Africa and South America were close to each other and part of the same landmass. This supercontinent formed several smaller continents. Africa began to move northward and eventually collided with the southern edge of Europe, forming the Mediterranean Sea. The movement of tectonic plates also separated Africa and South America.
As in future probability, MILLIONS OF YEARS AGO:
About 200 million years ago, the Earth was dominated by a single supercontinent called Pangaea. Africa and South America were close to each other and part of the same landmass. This supercontinent began to break up around 175 million years ago, leading to the formation of several smaller continents. Africa began to move northward and eventually collided with the southern edge of Europe, forming the Mediterranean Sea. The movement of tectonic plates also caused the formation of the Atlantic Ocean, which separated Africa and South America.
As forva future probability, MILLIONS OF YEARS AGO:
About 200 million years ago, the Earth was dominated by a single supercontinent called Pangaea. Africa and South America were close to each other and part of the same landmass. This supercontinent began to break up around 175 million years ago, leading to the formation of several smaller continents. Africa began to move northward and eventually collided with the southern edge of Europe, forming the Mediterranean Sea. The movement of tectonic plates also caused the formation of the Atlantic Ocean, which separated Africa and South America.
I would imagine that the movement of African continent towards North East even caused a NorthEast directed selfturning-topaç gibi-anticlockwise movement of Endonezia island.
Below is a list showing magnitude correlation between nort west Istanbul, and Niğde city from historical earthquakes (by Chat GPT ).
İstanbul Earthquake Magnitude seems less than Niğde Earthquakes, in 2023 February Niğde Earthquake is very small, 5.3 magnitude . Only felt tremors, no impact as an earthquake. That Niğde Earthquake magnitude is small good.
| Date | City | Magnitude |
|---|---|---|
| 1509-09-10 | Istanbul | 7.2 |
| 1668-03-31 | Istanbul | 6.7 |
| 1855-02-04 | Istanbul | 6.5 |
| 1881-08-24 | Niğde | 6.9 |
| 1903-07-22 | Istanbul | 6.9 |
| 1905-04-04 | Niğde | 6.8 |
| 1912-08-09 | Mürefte (near Istanbul) | 7.4 |
| 1926-06-26 | Hatay | 6.2 |
| 1927-06-06 | Izmir | 6.6 |
| 1939-11-27 | Erzincan | 7.8 |
| 1942-08-19 | Niksar | 7.0 |
| 1943-11-26 | Ladik (near Samsun) | 7.4 |
| 1944-01-26 | Tosya | 7.3 |
| 1949-03-28 | Karlıova | 6.7 |
| 1957-03-18 | Gediz | 7.1 |
| 1966-03-28 | Varto | 6.9 |
| 1970-05-01 | Gediz | 7.2 |
| 1998-08-17 | İkizdere | 6.8 |
| 1999-08-17 | İzmit (near Istanbul) | 7.6 |
| 1999-11-12 | Düzce | 7.2 |
- 1766-03-15: Izmir earthquake, magnitude 7.5 (by chatgpt)
- 1769-07-22: Istanbul earthquake, magnitude 7.1 (by chatgpt)
- 2020 Izmir Earthquake magnitude 6.6 (That izmir earthquake is below seven magnitude makes probability lucky for Istanbul )
Besides, 115 AC big Antioch Earthquake of Hatay, Syria vicinity was not followed by Istanbul Earthquake. Good for Istanbul earthquake history.
..
Çok büyük bir deprem olarak kayıtlara geçen İzmir tarihi deprem kalıntılarını ziyaret etmiştim. Demir kullanılmamıştı o eski çağda tabii normal olarak.
Modern temel yapı mühendisliğinin depremlere karşı insanı kazandırdığına inanıyorum. Depreme karşı geliştirilmiş teknolojiler isteyene, masraf edene var. Eski günlerde korkunç tablolar yaratan bazı depremleri bekleyip duruyoruz. Bence eskinin birçok korkunç sarsıntısını şimdi sallandık deyip atlattık. Bence birçok 6 civar deprem, evvelce olduğunda korkunç tablolarla sonuçlanıyordu, demir temellerle binaların dayanıklılığı arttı.
1999 da Çınarcık da komşu evler yanyatarken, bizim denize sıfır yazlık deprem atlatan 25 yılık ev hala kullanımımızda.
Zemin etüdü bence temel kadar önemli.
Istanbul tsunami geçirse de, oldukça korunan bir şehir, deniz dibinde çok deprem oluyor, üç deniz birbirine bağlı, su dengeleniyor, şanski sel tsunami sık olmuyor İstanbul da. Istanbul bence büyük depremler yerine, binlerce deniz altı depremle, kıyıda hissedilmeyen deniziçi etkili Tsunami ile yıllardır dengesini koruyor. Şahsen İstanbul'u terkedip gidilen yerlerin daha tehlikeli olduğuna inanıyorum.
Mesela Kıbrıs da deprem olmadı, İstanbul un zeminide öyle güçlü bence.
Yine de, tam güneş tutulması İstanbul dan izlenecek günlerde, ki çok fazla değildir öyle gün, bir bakacağım tam güneş tutulması günlerine, İstanbul dan görünecek.
TRANSLATED BY GOOGLE.
I visited the historical earthquake ruins of Izmir, which was recorded as a very big earthquake. Iron was not used in that ancient age, of course.
I believe that modern basic structural engineering saves people against earthquakes. It is available to those who want and spend money on technologies developed against earthquakes. We keep waiting for some earthquakes that created terrible pictures in the old days. I think we have already survived many terrible faults shocks of the past, experiencing some small earthquakes. I think many earthquakes around 6 would result in terrible pictures when they happened before, with iron foundations the durability of the buildings increased specifically for some cities.
While the neighboring houses were lying on their side in Çınarcık in 1999, our seaside flat, which survived the earthquake for 25 years, is still in use as normal.
Soil study is as important as the foundation in my opinion.
Even though Istanbul suffers from a tsunami, it is a highly protected city, there are many earthquakes below the sea, the three seas are connected, the water is balanced to stay low, there is no frequent chance flood tsunami in Istanbul. I think Istanbul has been keeping its durability for years, with thousands of submarine earthquakes instead of big earthquakes, and the tsunamies that is not felt on the coast.
Below chatgpt table shows a historical pattern of china, Antakya earthquakes, the pattern doesn't show any Istanbul Earthquake greater than 7.0 Magnitude for this Antakya pattern, though it is clear that Antakya always has such big magnitude earthquakes.
7 is not a big magnitude for good structures, my summer house experienced a 7.4 Earthquake and still good for 50 years. Istanbul is mostly with recent technology buildings for fifty or more years. It is the technology not the years of a building.
|
Date |
Location |
Magnitude |
Near Modern-Day City |
|
January
23, 107 |
North
China |
6.5 |
Zhangjiakou,
China |
|
July
28, 108 |
Yunnan,
China |
7.0 |
Dali
City, China |
|
111 |
Southern
Italy |
6.5 |
Naples,
Italy |
|
December
13, 115 |
Antakya,
Turkey |
7.5 |
Antakya,
Turkey |
|
May
21, 120 |
Eastern
Mediterranean |
7.5 |
Not
applicable (sea floor earthquake) |
|
123 |
Iraq |
7.0 |
Not
applicable (remote area) |
|
124 |
Syria |
7.0 |
Aleppo,
Syria |
|
127 |
Syria |
6.0 |
Not
applicable (remote area) |
|
128 |
Turkey |
6.0 |
Ankara,
Turkey |
|
129 |
Greece |
6.0 |
Athens,
Greece |
|
130 |
Rhodes,
Greece |
7.0 |
Rhodes,
Greece |
|
132 |
Eastern
Turkey |
7.2 |
Not
applicable (remote area) |
|
132 |
Aleppo,
Syria |
6.5 |
Aleppo,
Syria |
|
133 |
Cyprus |
7.0 |
Limassol,
Cyprus |
|
135 |
Jordan
Valley |
7.5 |
Not
applicable (remote area) |
Istanbul is rather tsunami type, and the tsunami problem is solved by three linked seas luckily. It is possible that at least 10 different Istanbul fault lines will be broken each about 5.5 earthquakes which will not change daily life for strong buildings of last 55 years. That there happens 20 many of 5.6 magnitude earthquakes not big problem of last 55 years istanbul building technology.
I do not mind those earthquakes below 7.0 Magnitude.
Another historical point is that, Istanbul is the best studied recorded prominent city in terms of bad, good sides. Many cities past history even lacks any record to investigate their past mention.
A theater play is here
another ref imagination is here
